Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Karpaty travel to Arena Lviv to take on Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 5 games, Karpaty have recorded 1W 2D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 20% versus Karpaty 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Karpaty 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 xG and Karpaty 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.055 / defence 0.871 | Karpaty attack 0.733 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.219. Karpaty's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 34 games and Karpaty's last 5.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 21%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.93 | Draw 3.65 | Karpaty 4.82. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | Karpaty 60% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 / Karpaty 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.055 / def 0.871 | Karpaty attack 0.733 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Karpaty xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Shakhtar Donetsk 5 - 2 Karpaty.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty is a Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 52% chance of winning, Karpaty a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 34 games and Karpaty's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.65
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.18
0.78
Karpaty xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.78 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Karpaty's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shakhtar Donetsk on 1.20 PPG, Karpaty on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Karpaty in 60%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Karpaty in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Karpaty (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Karpaty in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, Karpaty have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Karpaty 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 20%, Karpaty 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 60% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Karpaty in 40%; Shakhtar Donetsk have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 60% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 60% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Karpaty matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 80% of Karpaty's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Karpaty.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Karpaty 5-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 xG and Karpaty 0.78 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Karpaty attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 21%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, Karpaty 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Karpaty's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 1.20 PPG, Karpaty 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Shakhtar Donetsk scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Karpaty scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.