Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Kryvbas KR at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 2.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.17 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.941 / defence 0.838 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.730 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.158. Data: 19 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 1 Kryvbas KR games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 47% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 22%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Kryvbas KR 4.55. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kryvbas KR's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 47% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.17 / Kryvbas KR 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.941 / def 0.838 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.730 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Kryvbas KR xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 47% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (19/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.24
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
1.87
0.71
Kryvbas KR xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.71 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kryvbas KR.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kryvbas KR in 0%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Mar 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
3
Draws
0
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, Kryvbas KR have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kryvbas KR 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 0% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 0% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.17 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.71 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 47% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 22%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 0%, Kryvbas KR 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.