Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena L'viv, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 7W 2D 0L from 9 away games — 2.56 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.80 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.01 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.909 / defence 1.063 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.989 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 38% | Shakhtar Donetsk 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.01 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.909 / def 1.063 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.989 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 29% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.91x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (0.99x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.57
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.30
1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.29 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 14W 2D 1L across 17 games — 2.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 6W 2D 0L across 8 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.76 scored and 0.53 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 14W 2D 1L in their last 17 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-4 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 38%, Shakhtar Donetsk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 62%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 30, as Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.01 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Shakhtar Donetsk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.