Ruh Lviv 2-2 Minai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Minai meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Minai's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Minai have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 40% versus Minai 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 20% | Minai 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG and Minai 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / defence 1.028 | Minai attack 0.571 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.161. Data: 10 Ruh Lviv games / 10 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 36% | Minai 24%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Minai 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Minai's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.65 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Minai 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 36% | Minai 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.97 / Minai 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / def 1.028 | Minai attack 0.571 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Minai xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Minai kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Minai kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 2 Minai.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Minai part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Minai is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Minai a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Minai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Minai in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Minai (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.81) and Minai's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.57x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.50
36%
2.76
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.65
0.68
Minai xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 13.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.68 for Minai, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Minai sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Minai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Minai have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Minai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Minai in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Minai away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.75 PPG; Minai away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Minai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
5
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Minai have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Minai 1-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Minai tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, Minai 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ruh Lviv and 0% for Minai.
On the defensive side: Minai in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 25% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 0% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Minai tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Minai in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Minai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Minai finished level at 2-2 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG and Minai 0.68 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Minai outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Minai attack 0.57 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 36% | Minai 24%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 20%, Minai 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Minai's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Minai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.