Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 38%, yet in-form Kolos Kovalivka provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Kolos Kovalivka travel to Arena L'viv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 4D 1L at Arena L'viv — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kolos Kovalivka are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Kolos Kovalivka 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 24% | Kolos Kovalivka 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.843 / defence 0.991 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.722 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.218. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 38% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 30%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kolos Kovalivka (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 38% | Kolos Kovalivka 12% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 38% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.02 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.843 / def 0.991 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.722 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Kolos Kovalivka xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 38% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.84) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.14
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.89
0.87
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.87 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 8L across 17 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.06 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.82 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 7W 2D 8L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.43 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ruh Lviv 29% BTTS, Kolos Kovalivka 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Ruh Lviv and 14% for Kolos Kovalivka.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 43%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 43% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 14% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 14% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 19, as Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.87 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 38% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 30%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Kolos Kovalivka 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.