Ruh Lviv 2-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ruh Lviv welcome Kryvbas KR to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Arena L'viv this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 1W 3D 5L from 9 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 0.90 PPG, Kryvbas KR 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Kryvbas KR 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 56% | Kryvbas KR 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.088 / defence 1.069 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.740 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.254. Data: 26 Ruh Lviv games / 9 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 55% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 22%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Kryvbas KR 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Kryvbas KR 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 55% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.72 / Kryvbas KR 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.088 / def 1.069 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.740 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kryvbas KR xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 55% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.09) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.20
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.71
0.99
Kryvbas KR xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.99 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 0.89 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kryvbas KR's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 0.80 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kryvbas KR have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 80%, Kryvbas KR 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ruh Lviv) and 40% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kryvbas KR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Ruh Lviv's games and 40% of Kryvbas KR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 40% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Kryvbas KR 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kryvbas KR 2-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.99 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 55% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 22%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 56%, Kryvbas KR 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 0.89 PPG, Kryvbas KR 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.