Ruh Lviv 2-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Ruh Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Stadion Ukrajina. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 December 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Ukrajina — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–4 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 53% versus Chornomorets 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 37% | Chornomorets 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and Chornomorets 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.112 / defence 1.101 | Chornomorets attack 0.856 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.160. Data: 30 Ruh Lviv games / 32 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Chornomorets 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Chornomorets 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Dec 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.22 / Chornomorets 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.112 / def 1.101 | Chornomorets attack 0.856 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 7 December 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 39% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.11) and Chornomorets's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.31
1.09
Chornomorets xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.09 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.80 PPG from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.03 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 3W 6D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.93 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 5W 9D 16L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.15 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 62%, Chornomorets 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ruh Lviv) and 62% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 31% of games; Chornomorets in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ruh Lviv's games and 62% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 62% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 14, as Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and Chornomorets 1.09 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Chornomorets attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 37%, Chornomorets 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.03 PPG, Chornomorets 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.