Oleksandria 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Monday 28 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Oleksandria are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 59% versus Ruh Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 55% | Ruh Lviv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 2.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.461 / defence 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.894 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.165. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Oleksandria games / 29 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 64% | Draw 19% | Ruh Lviv 17%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Ruh Lviv 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Ruh Lviv 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 28 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 64% | Draw 19% | Ruh Lviv 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Oleksandria 2.27 / Ruh Lviv 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.461 / def 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.894 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 28 November 2022 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 64% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.46) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.22
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
3.37
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
9.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
56.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.10 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 13W 7D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 7W 9D 13L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (9W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 13W 7D 9L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 9D 13L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.08 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oleksandria's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
7
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 54%, Ruh Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Oleksandria) and 31% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Oleksandria's recent games and 31% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 2.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.46 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 64% | Draw 19% | Ruh Lviv 17%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 55%, Ruh Lviv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.