Oleksandria 3-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host FC Kharkiv at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Oleksandria are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 58% versus FC Kharkiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 52% | FC Kharkiv 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.27 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.233 / defence 1.008 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.856 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.163. Data: 31 Oleksandria games / 32 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 29%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 60% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Oleksandria 1.27 / FC Kharkiv 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.233 / def 1.008 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.856 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Kharkiv xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 27 February 2023 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria 3 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 43% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.55
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
FC Kharkiv xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.00 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 14W 8D 9L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 9W 7D 15L from 31 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (9W 1D 4L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.90 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 14W 8D 9L in their last 31 games (1.61 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 57%, FC Kharkiv 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 29% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 36%; FC Kharkiv in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oleksandria's recent games and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 6, as Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv drew 3-3 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.27 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 43% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 29%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 52%, FC Kharkiv 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.