Oleksandria 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 35% versus LNZ Cherkasy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 42% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.808 / defence 0.964 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.743 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.298. Data: 54 Oleksandria games / 24 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Oleksandria's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Oleksandria 0.83 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.808 / def 0.964 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.743 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Oleksandria 1 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 31% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.81) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.74x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.76
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.93 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 8D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.27 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Oleksandria's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.15 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Oleksandria) and 38% (LNZ Cherkasy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Oleksandria and 31% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 38%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 46% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 38% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Oleksandria's recent games and 31% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Oleksandria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Oleksandria 1-2 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.00 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.