Obolon'-Brovar 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Obolon'-Brovar take on Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 0.80 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2024, ended Obolon'-Brovar 0–4 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 30% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 36% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Obolon'-Brovar surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Shakhtar Donetsk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.760 / defence 0.987 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.999 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 0.856. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 51 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 35% | Shakhtar Donetsk 35%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.41 | Draw 2.82 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.84. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.74 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.59 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 home games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 35% | Shakhtar Donetsk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 / Shakhtar Donetsk 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.760 / def 0.987 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.999 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.207 / away 0.856 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 29% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.76x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.00x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 51 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.41
35%
2.82
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.59
0.84
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.35
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.84 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 17D 23L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 2.24 PPG from 50 outings (34W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (13W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.18 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 10W 17D 23L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 34W 10D 6L in their last 50 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.13 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won Obolon'-Brovar 0-6 Shakhtar Donetsk on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
0
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 26%, Shakhtar Donetsk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 44% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 48% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 44% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 65% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 0.84 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 35% | Shakhtar Donetsk 35%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 36%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.