Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Obolon'-Brovar take on Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Kryvbas KR to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kryvbas KR are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Kryvbas KR, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Obolon'-Brovar.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Kryvbas KR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (36 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (36 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 44% versus Kryvbas KR 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 50% | Kryvbas KR 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.13 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.976 / defence 1.062 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.966 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.062. Data: 36 Obolon'-Brovar games / 36 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 31%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Kryvbas KR 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Obolon'-Brovar 50% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.13 / Kryvbas KR 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.976 / def 1.062 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.966 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Record (6 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 2 | Kryvbas KR 4W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.98) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
36%
2.80
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.22
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.09 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 36 games, going 6W 14D 16L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (14W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 2W 8D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 14D 16L in their last 36 games (0.89 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.93 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 47%, Kryvbas KR 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 47% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 40% of games; Kryvbas KR in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 47% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 47% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.13 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Obolon'-Brovar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 50%, Kryvbas KR 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (36 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.