FC Kharkiv 1-4 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Veres Rivne travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Veres Rivne — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 1.40 (Veres Rivne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Kharkiv's 30% rate and Veres Rivne's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Veres Rivne and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Veres Rivne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 37% versus Veres Rivne 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Veres Rivne 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.12 xG and Veres Rivne 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.889 / defence 1.153 | Veres Rivne attack 0.994 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.231. Data: 27 FC Kharkiv games / 28 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Veres Rivne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Kharkiv 30% | Veres Rivne 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.12 / Veres Rivne 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.889 / def 1.153 | Veres Rivne attack 0.994 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Veres Rivne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 4 Veres Rivne.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 30% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.89) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.78
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.54
1.41
Veres Rivne xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.41 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 5D 14L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne's form line: 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.07 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Veres Rivne away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.43 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 43%, Veres Rivne 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Kharkiv) and 36% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 36%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 36% of games; Veres Rivne in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 29% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 1-4 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.12 xG and Veres Rivne 1.41 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.41 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Veres Rivne attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 44%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Veres Rivne 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.07 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.