FC Kharkiv 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Dnipro-1 at Stadion Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadion Kovalivka: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Dnipro-1 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 37% versus Dnipro-1 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 43% | Dnipro-1 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG and Dnipro-1 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.925 / defence 1.484 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.095 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.357. Data: 36 FC Kharkiv games / 35 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 15% | Draw 19% | Dnipro-1 65%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Dnipro-1 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 40% | Dnipro-1 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 15% | Draw 19% | Dnipro-1 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.97 / Dnipro-1 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.925 / def 1.484 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.095 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Dnipro-1 xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 15% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 65% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 2W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
15%
6.46
19%
5.20
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
3.18
2.21
Dnipro-1 xG
6.46
15%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
11%
9.07
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
58.59
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 2.21 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 9W 10D 16L from 35 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 25W 4D 6L across 35 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 6W 2D 8L from 16 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 10W 2D 4L across 16 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.97 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 25W 4D 6L in their last 35 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.25 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 44%, Dnipro-1 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 56% (Dnipro-1). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 44% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 56% of Dnipro-1's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Kharkiv 0-3 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG and Dnipro-1 2.21 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.93 / defence 1.48 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 15% | Draw 19% | Dnipro-1 65%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 43%, Dnipro-1 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.