FC Kharkiv 1-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Dnipro-1 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 40% versus Dnipro-1 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 40% | Dnipro-1 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.53 xG and Dnipro-1 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.147 / defence 1.242 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.078 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.214. Data: 5 FC Kharkiv games / 5 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Dnipro-1 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 40% | Dnipro-1 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.53 / Dnipro-1 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.147 / def 1.242 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.078 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Dnipro-1 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 33% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.40
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
3.15
1.63
Dnipro-1 xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
7%
15.34
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.63 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 in 60%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have FC Kharkiv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 40%, Dnipro-1 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FC Kharkiv and 80% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 40%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 60% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 80% of Dnipro-1's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out FC Kharkiv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Kharkiv 1-2 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.53 xG and Dnipro-1 1.63 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 37%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 40%, Dnipro-1 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.