Lviv 0-2 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inhulets at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lviv welcome Inhulets to Stadion SKIF in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 29 May 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lviv — last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Lviv have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Lviv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inhulets stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Inhulets's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inhulets — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.60 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Lviv have won 0, Inhulets 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2022, ended Lviv 0–1 Inhulets — a Inhulets win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 42% versus Inhulets 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 38% | Inhulets 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.79 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.646 / defence 1.137 | Inhulets attack 0.739 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.184. Lviv's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Lviv's last 46 games and Inhulets's last 45.
Result probabilities: Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.56 | Draw 3.05 | Inhulets 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Lviv's lower xG of 0.79 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lviv's last 10 home games and Inhulets's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lviv 30% (last 10 home games) | Inhulets 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Lviv 0.79 / Inhulets 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.646 / def 1.137 | Inhulets attack 0.739 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Inhulets xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Inhulets FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Inhulets kick off?
Lviv vs Inhulets kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 29 May 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Inhulets?
Lviv 0 - 2 Inhulets.
Where is Lviv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Inhulets part of?
Lviv vs Inhulets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 28% chance of winning, Inhulets a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lviv and Inhulets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Lviv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.65x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 46 games and Inhulets's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
28%
3.56
33%
3.05
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Lviv xG
Total xG
1.79
1.00
Inhulets xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Inhulets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Lviv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Lviv and 1.00 for Inhulets, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 7W 8D 30L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Inhulets's form line: 10W 11D 24L from 45 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lviv on 0.64 PPG, Inhulets on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.64 PPG from their last 22 home games (3W 5D 14L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 3W 7D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.73 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Current Season
Inhulets
Current Season
Lviv (Home) vs Inhulets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Current Season
Inhulets
Current Season
❓ Lviv vs Inhulets Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 8D 30L in their last 45 games (0.64 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 10W 11D 24L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Inhulets away?
Inhulets's away record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.64 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 29 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Inhulets have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Lviv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Inhulets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Inhulets?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 0, Inhulets have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Inhulets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 May 2023: Lviv 0-2 Inhulets.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Inhulets?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 50%, Inhulets 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lviv) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 46% of games; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Inhulets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Inhulets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lviv's recent matches and 46% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lviv and Inhulets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lviv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Inhulets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lviv's recent matches and 64% of Inhulets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inhulets cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Lviv 0-2 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.79 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.65 / defence 1.14 against Inhulets attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 39%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 38%, Inhulets 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.64 PPG, Inhulets 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.