LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Ruh Lviv to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 4W 2D 4L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.60 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 42% versus Ruh Lviv 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 45% | Ruh Lviv 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.860 / defence 0.952 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.281 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.260. Ruh Lviv have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 LNZ Cherkasy games / 31 Ruh Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 54%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ruh Lviv 1.85. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Ruh Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 / Ruh Lviv 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.860 / def 0.952 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.281 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ruh Lviv xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy 3 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 20% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
20%
4.99
26%
3.88
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.36
1.54
Ruh Lviv xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
23.16
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.54 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 12W 8D 11L from 31 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 5L across 31 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.42 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 6W 3D 7L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 8W 5D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 13W 13D 5L in their last 31 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.31 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.81 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Ruh Lviv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 56% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 3-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.54 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.28 / defence 0.88, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 54%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 45%, Ruh Lviv 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.42 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.