LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Tsentralnyi Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
LNZ Cherkasy are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.73 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.046 / defence 0.938 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.130 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.143. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 LNZ Cherkasy games / 39 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.00. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.73 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.046 / def 0.938 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.130 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027 at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 47% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 2W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.05) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.94
1.21
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
22.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.21 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 9D 9L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, LNZ Cherkasy are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.15 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 22W 9D 9L in their last 40 games (1.88 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.95 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.05 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 26% BTTS, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 63% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 26% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 42% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 63% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.