LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Dynamo Kyiv at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at Cherkasy Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 2.10 (Dynamo Kyiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for LNZ Cherkasy, 3 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 38% versus Dynamo Kyiv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.084 / defence 0.919 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.668 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.232. Dynamo Kyiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.668 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 LNZ Cherkasy games / 56 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.084 / def 0.919 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.668 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 35% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (5 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Kyiv 3W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.08) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
35%
2.87
23%
4.42
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
3.58
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
5%
19.01
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.89 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 23W 15D 18L from 56 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 34W 15D 7L across 56 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 16W 9D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.14 scored and 0.93 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 34W 15D 7L in their last 56 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.54 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.04 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 36%, Dynamo Kyiv 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 61% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 32%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 64% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 61% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 27, as LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.67 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Dynamo Kyiv 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.