Kudrivka 2-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kudrivka at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Obolon Arena to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kudrivka have posted 2W 1D 1L at Obolon Arena — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.25 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 1W 1D 5L from 7 Premier League matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Kudrivka are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.68 PPG ahead (1.25 vs 0.57). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 57% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 57% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.48 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.254 / defence 1.149 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.660 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.264. Kudrivka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Kudrivka games / 6 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 49% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.00. Kudrivka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kudrivka as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Kudrivka 100% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 49% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Kudrivka 1.48 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.254 / def 1.149 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.660 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kudrivka 2 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 49% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kudrivka's attack rating (1.25) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.81
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.44
0.96
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
6%
17.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.96 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kudrivka by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.29 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Kudrivka's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 2.33 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 3 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 100%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Kudrivka) and 0% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 0% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Kudrivka's recent games and 0% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.48 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.25 / defence 1.15 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.66 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 49% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 57%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.