Inhulets 1-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 38%, yet in-form Oleksandria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inhulets vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Inhulets plays host to Inhulets versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Thursday 25 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Inhulets haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stadion Inhulets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Oleksandria have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Oleksandria haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Oleksandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Oleksandria arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Inhulets, 1 for Oleksandria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Oleksandria 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | Oleksandria 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.13 xG and Oleksandria 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 1.002 / defence 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.988 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.030. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 18 Oleksandria games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Inhulets 38% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 33%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Oleksandria 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inhulets are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oleksandria (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 38% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (17 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 38% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Inhulets 1.13 / Oleksandria 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 1.002 / def 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.988 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Oleksandria xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Oleksandria kick off?
Inhulets vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 25 August 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Inhulets 1 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Inhulets vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Oleksandria part of?
Inhulets vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 38% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Inhulets and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are Inhulets and Oleksandria in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 1.00x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.99x) against Inhulets's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.39
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.15
1.02
Oleksandria xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.02 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 4D 10L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Inhulets haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Oleksandria's form line: 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. Oleksandria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inhulets have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.06 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Pre-Season
Oleksandria
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Oleksandria away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
4
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Oleksandria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 38%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Inhulets and 25% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 38%; Inhulets have failed to score in 50% of games; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Inhulets's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Inhulets's recent games and 25% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Inhulets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Inhulets 1-2 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.13 xG and Oleksandria 1.02 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/18 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 38% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 33%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Oleksandria 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.