Inhulets 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy meet at Stadion Inhulets in Premier League, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 June 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Inhulets (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Inhulets — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Inhulets. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.84 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.641 / defence 0.888 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.173. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Inhulets games / 0 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 32% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 32% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Inhulets 0.84 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.641 / def 0.888 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.89
LNZ Cherkasy xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Inhulets 1 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 32% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Inhulets home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.64x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.85x) against Inhulets's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 47/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
32%
3.13
34%
2.97
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.73
0.89
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 15.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.89 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Pre-Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Inhulets
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Inhulets, Relegation Round, as Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.84 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.89 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.64 / defence 0.89 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 32% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.