Inhulets 1-2 Karpaty – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Inhulets take on Karpaty.

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Analysis

Karpaty make the trip to CSC Nika to face Inhulets in Premier League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 14 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Inhulets have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Inhulets's home record over their last 7 home games: 2W 1D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Karpaty's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Karpaty have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Inhulets, 1.50 for Karpaty — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Inhulets 0–0 Karpaty — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 32% of Inhulets's games and 32% of Karpaty's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 36% | Karpaty 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.74 xG and Karpaty 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.583 / defence 0.925 | Karpaty attack 0.707 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 0.964. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Karpaty's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Data: built from Inhulets's last 22 games and Karpaty's last 23.

Result probabilities: Inhulets 34% | Draw 39% | Karpaty 27%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.93 | Draw 2.59 | Karpaty 3.67. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS Yes probability 25% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Karpaty's lower xG of 0.63 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 84% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Inhulets's last 7 home games and Karpaty's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 0% (last 7 home games) | Karpaty 40% (last 10 away games).

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