Inhulets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Inhulets welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 18 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 3W 0D 0L from 3 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 67% versus Dynamo Kyiv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Inhulets 67% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.19 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.913 / defence 1.571 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.949 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.268. Data: 3 Inhulets games / 3 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 21% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 51%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.96. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 67% | Dynamo Kyiv 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 21% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Inhulets 1.19 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.913 / def 1.571 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.949 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Inhulets 1 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 21% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
21%
4.83
29%
3.49
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Inhulets xG
Total xG
3.08
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
3%
31.99
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.89 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.67 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inhulets have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Early Season
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Inhulets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 67%, Dynamo Kyiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Inhulets and 67% for Dynamo Kyiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 67%; Inhulets have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Inhulets's recent matches and 33% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Inhulets's matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.19 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.91 / defence 1.57 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 21% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 51%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 67%, Dynamo Kyiv 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inhulets conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.