Kryvbas KR 1-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Kryvbas KR) versus 1.70 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 35% versus Ruh Lviv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.50 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.318 / defence 1.002 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.874 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.186. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Kryvbas KR games / 37 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 47% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 25%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 4.00. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 47% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.50 / Ruh Lviv 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.318 / def 1.002 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.874 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ruh Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 3 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 47% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.32x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.63
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.54
1.04
Ruh Lviv xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.04 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 17W 7D 13L from 37 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 13L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.57 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 10W 2D 5L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.14 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.88 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 35%, Ruh Lviv 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Kryvbas KR) and 47% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 29% of games; Ruh Lviv in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 41% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 47% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kryvbas KR 1-3 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.50 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.32 / defence 1.00 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 47% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 25%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ruh Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 40%, Ruh Lviv 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.