Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Kryvbas KR welcome Obolon'-Brovar to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.20 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Kryvbas KR: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Obolon'-Brovar, with 2 draws across those contests.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Kryvbas KR a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 61% versus Obolon'-Brovar 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 64% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.23 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / defence 1.350 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.636 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 34 Kryvbas KR games / 33 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 27%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 70% | Obolon'-Brovar 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.23 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / def 1.350 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.636 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Obolon'-Brovar xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 41% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (6 meetings): Kryvbas KR 4W | Draws 2 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.12x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.17
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.95 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 14W 10D 9L from 33 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 14L across 33 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.76 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 games (1.58 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 13D 14L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.65 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 65%, Obolon'-Brovar 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Kryvbas KR and 59% for Obolon'-Brovar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 41% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kryvbas KR's matches and 59% of Obolon'-Brovar's.
Do Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.