Kryvbas KR 0-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Kryvbas KR take on FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's home record at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kryvbas KR at 1.20 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 33% versus FC Kharkiv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 33% | FC Kharkiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.78 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.690 / defence 0.814 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.696 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.195. Kryvbas KR's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Kryvbas KR games / 30 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 37% | FC Kharkiv 28%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | FC Kharkiv 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — FC Kharkiv's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 20% | FC Kharkiv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 37% | FC Kharkiv 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.78 / FC Kharkiv 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.690 / def 0.814 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.696 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.68
FC Kharkiv xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 November 2022 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 34% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (0.69) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 25.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
37%
2.67
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.45
0.68
FC Kharkiv xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.77
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 15.8 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.0%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.68 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 3D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Kryvbas KR are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Kharkiv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Kharkiv tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kryvbas KR 25% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Kryvbas KR and 25% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 50%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 50% of games; FC Kharkiv in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Kryvbas KR 0-2 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.78 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.68 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Kharkiv outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.69 / defence 0.81 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.70 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 37% | FC Kharkiv 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, FC Kharkiv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.