Kryvbas KR 2-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Girnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 6W 3D 1L at Girnyk — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Kryvbas KR are significantly better at Girnyk than their overall form suggests.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.20 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 5–4 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 57% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 57% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.290 / defence 0.976 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.769 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.201. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Kryvbas KR games / 20 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 21% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 60% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 21% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Kryvbas KR 2.03 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.290 / def 0.976 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.769 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 63% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.79
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.93
0.90
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
48.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.90 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 8W 8D 5L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 12L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Kryvbas KR are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 2.00 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Kryvbas KR 2-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 67%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kryvbas KR and 56% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 44%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 22% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kryvbas KR's matches and 56% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's.
Do Kryvbas KR and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 21% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 57%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.