Dnipro-1 vs Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Lviv at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dnipro Arena, Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 0D 1L this season (9 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
On current form, Dnipro-1 have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dnipro-1, 0 for Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 39% versus Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.83 xG and Lviv 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.313 / defence 1.090 | Lviv attack 0.790 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.222. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dnipro-1 games / 18 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 56% | Draw 23% | Lviv 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Lviv 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 44% | Lviv 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 56% | Draw 23% | Lviv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Dnipro-1 1.83 / Lviv 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.313 / def 1.090 | Lviv attack 0.790 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lviv xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Lviv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Dnipro Arena.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 56% chance of winning, Lviv a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Lviv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.39
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.88
1.05
Lviv xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
29.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.05 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 13W 1D 4L from 18 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Lviv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Lviv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.62 PPG; Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lviv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dnipro-1 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 38%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Dnipro-1) and 38% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 38% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Lviv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lviv in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 and Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.83 xG and Lviv 1.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Lviv attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 56% | Draw 23% | Lviv 22%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.