Chornomorets 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Chornomorets this season.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Chornomorets's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 58% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 58% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.49 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.922 / defence 1.034 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.951 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.213. Vorskla Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Chornomorets games / 38 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 44% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 30%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Vorskla Poltava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Vorskla Poltava 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 44% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Chornomorets 1.49 / Vorskla Poltava 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.922 / def 1.034 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.951 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Vorskla Poltava xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 44% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.95x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.91
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.68
1.19
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.19 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 7W 13D 18L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 15W 11D 12L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (3W 7D 8L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.89 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 56%, Vorskla Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chornomorets) and 56% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Chornomorets's games and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chornomorets's recent games and 56% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.49 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.19 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 44% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 30%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 58%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.