Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: L L L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 3W 0D 1L from 4 Premier League matches — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.25 vs 0.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chornomorets 100% | Shakhtar Donetsk 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.768 / defence 1.345 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.068 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.190. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Chornomorets games / 4 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 15% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 6.67 | Draw 3.23 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.85. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 15% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Chornomorets 0.86 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.768 / def 1.345 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.068 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Chornomorets 0 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 15% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 54% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
15%
6.48
31%
3.27
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.57
1.71
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
6.48
15%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
3%
35.80
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.71 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Chornomorets or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Chornomorets and 75% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chornomorets's matches and 75% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 0-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.71 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 15% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 100%, Shakhtar Donetsk 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.