Trabzonspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Başakşehir in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.64 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Başakşehir attack 0.986 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.310. Data: 45 Trabzonspor games / 45 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Trabzonspor 1.64 / Başakşehir 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.243 / def 1.105 | Başakşehir attack 0.986 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Başakşehir xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 41% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.99x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.73
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
Başakşehir xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.43 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 10D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (22W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.67 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 13W 3D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.58 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 games (1.69 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 9D 14L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.91 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 64%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Trabzonspor) and 41% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 32%; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 41% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.64 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.69 PPG, Başakşehir 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.