İstanbulspor 2-4 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as İstanbulspor welcome Pendikspor to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
İstanbulspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's home record at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — İstanbulspor at 0.80 PPG versus Pendikspor's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pendikspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — İstanbulspor 50% and Pendikspor 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 40% | Pendikspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.35 xG and Pendikspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.086 | Pendikspor attack 0.893 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.168. Data: 45 İstanbulspor games / 10 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 29%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Pendikspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is İstanbulspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 40% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG İstanbulspor 1.35 / Pendikspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.868 / def 1.086 | Pendikspor attack 0.893 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Pendikspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor?
İstanbulspor 2 - 4 Pendikspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 40% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both İstanbulspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are İstanbulspor and Pendikspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates İstanbulspor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.18
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Pendikspor xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.13 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
İstanbulspor come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 2D 6L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pendikspor sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 0.80 PPG, Pendikspor on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
İstanbulspor's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Pendikspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Pendikspor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.80 PPG; Pendikspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
2
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 0, Pendikspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Pendikspor 1-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Pendikspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — İstanbulspor at 60%, Pendikspor at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (İstanbulspor) and 60% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of İstanbulspor's games and 80% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of İstanbulspor's recent games and 60% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do İstanbulspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pendikspor cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat İstanbulspor 2-4 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.35 xG and Pendikspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Pendikspor outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Pendikspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 29%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pendikspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 40%, Pendikspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.80 PPG, Pendikspor 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pendikspor win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.