Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sivasspor face Fenerbahçe.

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Analysis & Preview

Fenerbahçe travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sivasspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sivasspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Sivasspor's games and 60% of Fenerbahçe's (from Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Fenerbahçe have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Sivasspor.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Sivasspor 0–4 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.224 / defence 1.064 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.573 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.179. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.573, which lifts their away xG to 1.97. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 67 games and Fenerbahçe's last 66.

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 31% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 47%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.27 | Draw 4.48 | Fenerbahçe 2.12. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.97) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 away games).

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