Sivasspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sivasspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Fenerbahçe travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 5W 4D 1L at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 10W 0D 0L from 10 away outings — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 2.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fenerbahçe have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Sivasspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.951 / defence 0.878 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.542 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.226. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Sivasspor games / 68 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 20% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 20% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sivasspor 0.99 / Fenerbahçe 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.951 / def 0.878 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.542 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Fenerbahçe xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Sivasspor 2 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 20% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
20%
4.92
29%
3.48
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.65
1.66
Fenerbahçe xG
4.92
20%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
25.87
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.66 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 22W 19D 27L from 68 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 52W 9D 7L across 68 games — 2.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sivasspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 10W 14D 9L from 33 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 26W 4D 3L across 33 trips, a 2.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 19D 27L in their last 68 games (1.25 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 52W 9D 7L in their last 68 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
3
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Fenerbahçe 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 58% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 52% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, as Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.66 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.71, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 20% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.