Samsunspor 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 21 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season.
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Samsunspor. A 1.50 PPG lead over Fatih Karagümrük (2.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Samsunspor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 60% versus Fatih Karagümrük 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.977 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.879 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.195. Data: 41 Samsunspor games / 5 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.17. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Samsunspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Samsunspor 1.45 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.948 / def 0.977 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.879 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Samsunspor 3 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 45% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.88x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.23
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.03 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Samsunspor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 20%.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Samsunspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
1
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 60%, Fatih Karagümrük 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Samsunspor) and 40% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 20% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Samsunspor's recent games and 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 45% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 40%, Fatih Karagümrük 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Samsunspor scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.