Rizespor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Hatayspor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Current Form
Rizespor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor's home record over their last 8 home games: 5W 2D 1L (2.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Hatayspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2022, ended Rizespor 0–0 Hatayspor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 53% versus Hatayspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 47% | Hatayspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.51 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.062 / defence 0.959 | Hatayspor attack 0.736 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.268. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Rizespor's last 17 games and Hatayspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.99 | Draw 3.44 | Hatayspor 4.81. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 8 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 38% (last 8 home games) | Hatayspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rizespor 1.51 / Hatayspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.062 / def 0.959 | Hatayspor attack 0.736 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hatayspor xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Hatayspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Rizespor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Hatayspor part of?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 50% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Hatayspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rizespor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (1.06) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.74x) against Rizespor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 17 games and Hatayspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.44
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.41
0.90
Hatayspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Hatayspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.90 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 5D 5L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across their last 8 home games, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 8 away games (0W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 65%.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Hatayspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Hatayspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Hatayspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.12 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 31 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Hatayspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Hatayspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 May 2025: Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 38%, Hatayspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rizespor and 38% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%; Hatayspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Hatayspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Hatayspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rizespor's recent matches and 38% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Hatayspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rizespor's recent games and 38% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Hatayspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 50% of Hatayspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.51 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 47%, Hatayspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.