Rizespor 0-3 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rizespor face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Galatasaray meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Galatasaray are 1.10 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Galatasaray have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Rizespor's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Galatasaray winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Galatasaray — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Galatasaray 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Galatasaray 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.02 xG and Galatasaray 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.969 / defence 1.017 | Galatasaray attack 1.313 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.299. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Rizespor games / 56 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 19% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 51%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Galatasaray 1.96. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rizespor 40% | Galatasaray 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 19% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Rizespor 1.02 / Galatasaray 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.969 / def 1.017 | Galatasaray attack 1.313 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Galatasaray xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Rizespor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Galatasaray?
Rizespor 0 - 3 Galatasaray.
Where is Rizespor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Galatasaray part of?
Rizespor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 19% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rizespor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Galatasaray?
Record (7 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Galatasaray 7W.
What form are Rizespor and Galatasaray in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Galatasaray (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.31x) against Rizespor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
19%
5.34
30%
3.29
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.74
Galatasaray xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
3%
30.27
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.74 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 19W 12D 25L from 56 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 45W 9D 2L across 56 games — 2.57 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 12W 5D 10L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 22W 3D 2L across 27 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.43 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 45W 9D 2L in their last 56 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.52 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Galatasaray have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 5-0 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Rizespor
0
Draws
8
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Galatasaray have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Rizespor 0-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 52%, Galatasaray 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rizespor) and 63% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 37%; Rizespor have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rizespor's games and 59% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rizespor's matches and 63% of Galatasaray's.
Do Rizespor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Rizespor 0-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.02 xG and Galatasaray 1.74 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Galatasaray outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Galatasaray attack 1.31 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 19% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 51%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Galatasaray 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Galatasaray's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.