Çorum FK 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Çorum FK host Alanyaspor at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Çorum FK at 1.40 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Çorum FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 70% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Çorum FK in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Çorum FK 60% and Alanyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Çorum FK 80% | Alanyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.30 xG and Alanyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.933 / defence 0.961 | Alanyaspor attack 0.901 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.210. Data: 5 Çorum FK games / 39 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 42% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Alanyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Çorum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Çorum FK 60% | Alanyaspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 42% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Çorum FK 1.30 / Alanyaspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.933 / def 0.961 | Alanyaspor attack 0.901 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Corum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 42% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Çorum FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Çorum FK and Alanyaspor in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Çorum FK's attack rating (0.93) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Çorum FK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.61
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
2.35
1.05
Alanyaspor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.05 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Çorum FK come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Çorum FK on 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Çorum FK are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Çorum FK's scoring rate against Alanyaspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 60%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Çorum FK or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Çorum FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Çorum FK and Alanyaspor runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Çorum FK
0
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Alanyaspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Çorum FK 1-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 60%, Alanyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Çorum FK and 40% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Çorum FK's games and 60% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Çorum FK's matches and 40% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Çorum FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Çorum FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Çorum FK 1-2 at Corum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Çorum FK 1.30 xG and Alanyaspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Çorum FK attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Çorum FK 42% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 30%, with Çorum FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Çorum FK 80%, Alanyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Çorum FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Çorum FK 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Çorum FK managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.