Konyaspor 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Konyaspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.20 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Konyaspor have won 1, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Konyaspor 1–2 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 45% | Trabzonspor 58%). Note also that Trabzonspor surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Konyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.955 / defence 0.995 | Trabzonspor attack 1.049 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.182. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 66 games and Trabzonspor's last 65.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.39 | Trabzonspor 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Konyaspor 1.44 / Trabzonspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.955 / def 0.995 | Trabzonspor attack 1.049 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 66 games and Trabzonspor's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.39
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.23 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 26D 20L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 31W 10D 24L from 65 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 12D 10L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 5D 17L from their last 32 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 19W 26D 20L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 31W 10D 24L in their last 65 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.31 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Konyaspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Trabzonspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Konyaspor) and 62% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 66% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Konyaspor's recent games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 81% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 45%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.