Konyaspor 1-1 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees İstanbulspor travel to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, İstanbulspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. İstanbulspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
İstanbulspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 1.60 PPG, İstanbulspor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 1, İstanbulspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with İstanbulspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus İstanbulspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 53% | İstanbulspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.50 xG and İstanbulspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.886 / defence 0.946 | İstanbulspor attack 1.045 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.417. Data: 36 Konyaspor games / 36 İstanbulspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | İstanbulspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | İstanbulspor 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Konyaspor 1.50 / İstanbulspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.886 / def 0.946 | İstanbulspor attack 1.045 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
İstanbulspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 İstanbulspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.89) and İstanbulspor's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.04
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.40
İstanbulspor xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.40 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 12W 15D 9L from 36 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. Konyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
İstanbulspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 19L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. İstanbulspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.42 PPG, İstanbulspor on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 5W 8D 5L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
İstanbulspor's away record stands at 6W 2D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
İstanbulspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 15D 9L in their last 36 games (1.42 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 12W 5D 19L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.28 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2022, when Konyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-0 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, İstanbulspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Konyaspor) and 61% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; İstanbulspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Konyaspor's recent games and 61% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and İstanbulspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Konyaspor and İstanbulspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.50 xG and İstanbulspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against İstanbulspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 36%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 53%, İstanbulspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.42 PPG, İstanbulspor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.