Konyaspor 0-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Sivasspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
Sivasspor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.60 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sivasspor have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Konyaspor.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sivasspor winning.
It is worth noting that Sivasspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 40% | Sivasspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.826 / defence 0.893 | Sivasspor attack 0.914 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.271. Data: 43 Konyaspor games / 43 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Sivasspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.26 / Sivasspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.826 / def 0.893 | Sivasspor attack 0.914 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sivasspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.38
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.04
Sivasspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.04 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 15D 17L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor's form line: 16W 13D 14L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.12 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.14 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 48%, Sivasspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Konyaspor) and 57% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sivasspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Konyaspor's recent games and 57% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Sivasspor finished level at 0-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Sivasspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 40%, Sivasspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sivasspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.12 PPG, Sivasspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.