Konyaspor vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Konyaspor 2W, Samsunspor 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Samsunspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Samsunspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.30 xG and Samsunspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.713 / defence 0.844 | Samsunspor attack 0.873 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Konyaspor games / 42 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 4.00. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Samsunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Konyaspor 1.30 / Samsunspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.713 / def 0.844 | Samsunspor attack 0.873 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Samsunspor xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.71) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.87x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.51
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.16
0.86
Samsunspor xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.86 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 12D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (14W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.31 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 48%, Samsunspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.