Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 43%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 7W 1D 2L at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 59% versus Başakşehir 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Başakşehir 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.49 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.139 / defence 0.934 | Başakşehir attack 1.038 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.284. Data: 39 Konyaspor games / 39 Başakşehir games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 43% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 32%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 43% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Konyaspor 1.49 / Başakşehir 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.139 / def 0.934 | Başakşehir attack 1.038 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Başakşehir xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.94
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Başakşehir xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.25 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 20W 9D 10L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 20W 8D 11L from 39 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.77 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 7W 6D 6L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.54 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 20W 9D 10L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.26 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 47%, Başakşehir 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Konyaspor) and 47% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Konyaspor's games and 63% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Konyaspor's recent games and 47% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.49 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 43% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 32%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 56%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.77 PPG, Başakşehir 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.