Konyaspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor meet at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Antalyaspor away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Konyaspor 1–1 Antalyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Antalyaspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 48% | Antalyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Antalyaspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.792 / defence 0.873 | Antalyaspor attack 1.122 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.210. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 56 games and Antalyaspor's last 56.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.13 | Draw 3.02 | Antalyaspor 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 21 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Konyaspor 1.13 / Antalyaspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.792 / def 0.873 | Antalyaspor attack 1.122 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Antalyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 21) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Konyaspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.79x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.12x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 56 games and Antalyaspor's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.02
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
Antalyaspor xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.19 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 22D 18L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (18W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.25 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 7D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 22D 18L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
6
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 52%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Konyaspor) and 37% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Antalyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Konyaspor's recent games and 37% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 70% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, as Konyaspor and Antalyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Antalyaspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.87 against Antalyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 35%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 48%, Antalyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.25 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.