Kayserispor 1-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kayserispor face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kasımpaşa travel to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kayserispor stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kayserispor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kayserispor 1.70 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Kayserispor have won 4, Kasımpaşa 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2024, ended Kayserispor 2–1 Kasımpaşa — a Kayserispor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Kasımpaşa 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kayserispor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 2.09 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.159 / defence 1.041 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.228 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.188. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 66 games and Kasımpaşa's last 67.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.98 | Draw 4.52 | Kasımpaşa 3.63. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.09 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 40% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Kayserispor 2.09 / Kasımpaşa 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.159 / def 1.041 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.228 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Kasımpaşa xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 66 games and Kasımpaşa's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.52
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.61
1.52
Kasımpaşa xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.52 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 21D 26L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 24W 20D 22L from 66 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.18 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (11W 12D 10L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 9D 12L from their last 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.65 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 19W 21D 26L in their last 66 games (1.18 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 20D 22L in their last 66 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.36 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kayserispor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 6, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 53% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 54%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kayserispor) and 67% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Kayserispor's games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kayserispor's matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 76% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Kasımpaşa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 2.09 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.52 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.18 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.