Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Kayserispor welcome Başakşehir to Kadir Has Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Kadir Has Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Başakşehir's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Kayserispor: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Başakşehir, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Kayserispor a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 54% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 48% | Başakşehir 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 0.96 xG and Başakşehir 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.829 / defence 1.244 | Başakşehir attack 1.144 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.286. Data: 54 Kayserispor games / 54 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 16% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 55%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Kayserispor dominate the H2H record, yet Başakşehir are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 60% | Başakşehir 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 16% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Kayserispor 0.96 / Başakşehir 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.829 / def 1.244 | Başakşehir attack 1.144 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Başakşehir xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Kayserispor 0 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir part of?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 16% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kayserispor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Record (9 meetings): Kayserispor 5W | Draws 3 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
16%
6.17
29%
3.43
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.83
Başakşehir xG
6.17
16%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
3%
38.48
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.83 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 13W 21D 20L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 20L across 54 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.11 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 11W 2D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 13W 21D 20L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 23W 11D 20L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Başakşehir away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.35 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kayserispor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kayserispor) and 58% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%; Kayserispor have failed to score in 31% of games; Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kayserispor's matches and 58% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kayserispor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kayserispor 0-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 0.96 xG and Başakşehir 1.83 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 16% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 55%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.11 PPG, Başakşehir 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.