Kasımpaşa 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Kayserispor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kayserispor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.30 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Kayserispor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 58% versus Kayserispor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Kayserispor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.980 / defence 1.417 | Kayserispor attack 1.037 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.275. Data: 48 Kasımpaşa games / 48 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 49%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Kayserispor 2.04. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Kayserispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.39 / Kayserispor 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.980 / def 1.417 | Kayserispor attack 1.037 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Kayserispor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 29% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.98x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
29%
3.50
22%
4.45
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.26
1.87
Kayserispor xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.87 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 9D 20L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.31 PPG from 48 outings (17W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.38 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 10W 4D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (3W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.42 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Kayserispor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.42 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
6
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Kayserispor have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Kayserispor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Kasımpaşa and 54% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 62% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 54% of Kayserispor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Kasımpaşa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.87 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kayserispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 1.42 against Kayserispor attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 49%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Kayserispor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Kayserispor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.