Kasımpaşa 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kasımpaşa face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 3D 3L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 6 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 67% versus Fenerbahçe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 64% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.37 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.108 / defence 1.217 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.467 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.289. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — the away xG of 2.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Kasımpaşa games / 42 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 58%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.37 / Fenerbahçe 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.108 / def 1.217 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.467 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
2.30
Fenerbahçe xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 22% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.11x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 2.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
22%
4.60
20%
4.94
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.67
2.30
Fenerbahçe xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
10%
9.98
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
2%
45.97
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 2.30 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 10D 15L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.60 PPG from 42 outings (34W 7D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.62 points per game from 21 outings (17W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.62 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 34W 7D 1L in their last 42 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.52 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.62 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Fenerbahçe 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kasımpaşa) and 48% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 38% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 48% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 0-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.37 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.30 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.47 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 58%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.