Hatayspor 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Mersin Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rizespor away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.40 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 57% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 51% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.94 xG and Rizespor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.898 / defence 1.129 | Rizespor attack 0.905 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Hatayspor games / 37 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 4.35. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hatayspor 1.94 / Rizespor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.898 / def 1.129 | Rizespor attack 0.905 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Rizespor xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Hatayspor 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Rizespor part of?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 51% chance of winning, Rizespor a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hatayspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.91x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 73/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.98
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.22
1.28
Rizespor xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.28 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 8W 14D 15L from 37 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 15L across 37 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.35 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 6W 7D 5L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.30 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 8W 14D 15L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Rizespor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.39 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 5-2 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 72%, Rizespor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hatayspor and 72% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hatayspor's matches and 72% of Rizespor's.
Do Hatayspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Rizespor 2-0 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.94 xG and Rizespor 1.28 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Rizespor attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 73/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 23%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 51%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.03 PPG, Rizespor 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.